11 biggest unknowns before the 2024 F1 season begins
Contrary to the cliche, Formula 1 testing can inform you some issues about the upcoming season.
But we have now to attend till qualifying and the grand prix at the season opener till the 10 F1 groups put all their playing cards on the desk.
So what are the biggest unknowns looming over the Bahrain Grand Prix and the 2024 season as a complete?
We requested our writers for his or her strategies.
How huge will Red Bull’s benefit be?
Despite Ferrari being quickest at the pre-season check and posting some encouraging long-run instances, all with the perception that it was not working at 100%, it was Red Bull that everyone thought of (and nonetheless considers) the pre-season favorite.
Put merely, the expectation is that Red Bull held extra again than anyone else. What we don’t know is how a lot. So the apparent query going into the season is how huge will Red Bull’s benefit actually be?
Within which can be some smaller however nonetheless necessary sub-sections. Will the automobile have a much bigger race day benefit than in qualifying once more? If so, may or not it’s susceptible on Saturday and will others have improved their very own efficiency sufficient to really capitalise on a greater grid place on Sunday?
And is that this automobile one which solely Max Verstappen can get the most out of constantly or will Sergio Perez keep away from the problems with 2023, making it extra of a struggle even when in staff phrases it’s a one-horse once more?
Even in the near-certainty of Red Bull having a bonus at the begin of the season there’s sufficient maintaining us guessing to keep up intrigue for now. – Scott Mitchell-Malm
Is Ferrari’s race tempo actually on a ‘completely different planet’ now?
Fred Vasseur described the Ferrari’s tyre degradation throughout Bahrain testing as being ‘on another planet better’ than final yr. The numbers really bear this out.
On the ultimate day of final yr, Carlos Sainz’s 10-lap run on C3 tyres began out in the low 1m39s and inside 9 laps he was doing 1m40.2s, together with his final lap a 1m41.0s.
This yr on the ultimate day, Charles Leclerc did a 15-lap run on the C3s, starting with a 1m37.1s and ending it with a 1m38.4s. Maybe not fairly like-for-like relating to gasoline degree, however this yr Leclerc goes 50% longer for the same degree of deg. Will it translate to the race weekend? – Mark Hughes
Where does Mercedes actually stand?
Everyone at Mercedes is for certain that the W15 is a automobile that it could actually work with, giving the drivers confidence and making a platform that can reply to ongoing improvement. What isn’t totally clear is strictly the place it’s in the pecking order.
Testing recommended it was in fine condition, near Ferrari on long-run tempo.
However, it didn’t full a full-blow race simulation. Likewise, the staff admits to having extra work to do on its single-lap tempo. Having digested the classes of the three days of check working, we should always at the least get to see what it could actually do.
Provided Mercedes is thereabouts with Ferrari, McLaren and Aston Martin, it needs to be in fine condition for the yr forward. The key was at all times that it had a steady, constant platform to construct from.
But in fact, that is Mercedes, and there’s at all times the danger that after two years of disagreeable unfavourable surprises there could also be some surprising difficulties that imply issues may not be nearly as good as they appeared.
Whatever occurs, we’ll know what its baseline is for 2024 and subsequently what the likelihood is of it with the ability to develop shortly sufficient to emerge as a Red Bull menace in the future. – Edd Straw
How a lot bother is Alpine in?
The season goes to begin badly for Alpine, however Bahrain will reveal simply how far off it’s. If testing is something to go by, a Q1 exit could possibly be on that playing cards.
That’s actually not ok for a works staff, even one which has been at pains to handle expectations. The automobile is obese, doesn’t look good on monitor and each drivers have made it clear they anticipate a gradual begin.
Can it actually be that unhealthy? It’s potential Alpine has extra efficiency to unlock having spent the check specializing in understanding the revised mechanical platform it considers to be the coronary heart of its new idea. But that’s unlikely to imply a step change in tempo.
If Alpine actually shouldn’t be solely in the again group, however in the direction of the again of it, that can pile on the stress. There have been indicators of progress trackside since the center of final yr, however that gained’t be sufficient if it’s constructed a automobile that isn’t as much as it.
Bahrain will reveal the full extent of Alpine’s bother. – ES
Is McLaren lastly prepared to begin a season strongly?
McLaren has failed to begin both season on this set of rules with a robust end result. And it have to be linked to how its automobile has carried out, early on in the season at the least, on this ruleset.
McLaren’s really point-less in the final two season openers. But expectations are completely different this time round.
In every of the two years previous to the 2022 overhaul, Lando Norris completed fourth in Bahrain. It would most likely take that end result fairly fortunately this time round.
McLaren scored a number of podiums as 2023 went on and has expressed confidence in sustaining its improvement curve in the off-season.
Some particular weaknesses appear to stay although, or at the least want a bit extra time – and a few extra upgrades – to be addressed, leaving the staff with a lingering deficit in the slow-speed corners.
McLaren’s nonetheless speaking about this not being a monitor that fits its automobile ideally though it needs to make it extra of an all-rounder.
But if there’s a little bit of Bahrain-specific vulnerability the staff ought to at the least be beginning the yr in a greater place total. – SMM
How huge a step ahead has RB taken?
The staff with the biggest hope of escaping final yr’s four-way again of the grid scrap is RB.
Red Bull’s rebranded second staff had a quietly stellar pre-season check, however simply how a lot progress has it made?
The reply hinges on whether or not it could actually threaten Aston Martin and snipe at the heels of the prime 4 groups or whether or not it is merely firmly at the head of a cast-off second half of the grid.
And if the RB is a midfield chief, will that enhance criticism of its nearer relationship with Red Bull, given the tirade – led largely by McLaren CEO Zak Brown – in opposition to co-ownership and A/B staff relationships?
The VCARB 01 did not resemble the all-conquering RB19 almost as a lot as some thought it might, however that alone is not going to quash complaints.
RB seems the staff most able to breaking freed from the again of the grid this yr, however you possibly can’t depend out Williams’s ‘late automobile’ gamble paying dividends (though you’d suspect the advantages of that might be higher felt later in the yr).
Sauber confirmed a formidable flip of velocity too on the ultimate day of testing – although seemingly low-fuel assisted – and Haas and Alpine have each set expectations of a gradual begin. – Josh Suttill
What’s the state of the 2025 foolish season?
Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari bombshell has already kicked 2025 foolish season into overdrive and our first correct have a look at the 2024 aggressive pecking order will additional form the driver market.
That’s as a result of the Bahrain GP will inform drivers whether or not they’re in for a yr of ache (prefer it did for Hamilton and George Russell at Mercedes final yr) or whether or not there’s good cause to place pen to paper with their present groups as quickly as potential.
For instance Alex Albon, a possible goal for a number of groups regardless of being beneath contract at Williams, might be measuring the competitiveness of his new automobile versus his different potential 2025 locations with nice curiosity.
A return to Red Bull could possibly be a possible touchdown spot for him, however which will depend upon whether or not Sergio Perez clicks with the RB20 in a method he did not with the RB19 for 3 quarters of the season. It may additionally select Daniel Ricciardo from RB to interchange Perez.
The competitiveness of the Aston Martin might resolve whether or not Fernando Alonso holds out for Hamilton’s Mercedes seat or commits to Aston.
Hamilton himself might come to both remorse or relish his Ferrari transfer primarily based on its relative competitiveness. He’ll discover out whether or not he is acquired a Mercedes ok for a starring farewell.
Further down the grid, Kevin Magnussen, who struggled with final yr’s automobile traits, felt progress in pre-season with a VF-24 that he may belief “from braking to turn-in to mid-corner”.
Whether that materialises might be essential for his future, with the likes of Ferrari protege Ollie Bearman circling his seat for 2025. – JS
How lengthy will Horner saga cling over Red Bull?
In a literal sense, the ‘Horner saga’ could also be over by the time you learn this – as a choice on his future is reported in some quarters, together with from Sky Sports, to be approaching Wednesday before the Bahrain GP.
We don’t know whether or not Horner might be the staff principal come race weekend weekend and what affect his staying or leaving may need.
But one factor we do know is that Red Bull is coming off the again of one in all the most dominant years in F1 historical past the place it arguably constructed the sequence’ best-ever automobile. And such is its quest for greatness, it’s mainly overhauled that design for this season in a bid to ensure it stays forward.
So it doesn’t really feel like its on-track efficiency might be affected by this case in the short-term.
It’s the longer-term fallout that can actually be the factor to look at right here. – Jack Benyon
Will following be higher or worse this yr?
In basic, the extra aerodynamically efficient the vehicles turn out to be, the much less straightforward it will likely be to observe carefully.
Specifically, we’re seeing some developments – equivalent to the Mercedes entrance wing with its half-width prime flap – which look designed to create a higher outwash.
This doesn’t at all times imply a extra turbulent wake, nevertheless it fairly often does. There’s nothing to recommend following goes to be a complete step change worse; it’s extra more likely to be levels. – MH
Where is the subsequent FIA/F1 conflict coming from?
Andretti being permitted by the FIA for an F1 entry, after which being denied by F1 itself, is simply the highest-profile occasion of the friction between the championship and the governing physique in current instances.
It’s clear that many individuals need extra groups on the F1 grid however, contemplating how troublesome it has been, it’s arduous to think about we’ll see a brand new staff before the subsequent engine guidelines cycle until Andretti provides F1’s current groups – defending their slice of the prize cash pie – no selection however to simply accept it.
It appears like one other conflict between the FIA and F1 is a matter of if, and never when. There’s definitely friction between F1 and FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem over the hands-on method he is taken throughout his tenure and a few of the resolution making that has been on show.
The subsequent dispute by no means feels far-off given current friction. – JB
Will these vehicles hold breaking drain covers?
After two stoppages throughout the check, and contemplating final yr’s controversial Las Vegas GP injury and disruption, it has been requested if this era of vehicles will hold breaking drain covers and inflicting issues.
Some circuits are older than others and have completely different buildings in place round these components of the monitor floor (or past it). Maybe some usually are not as sturdy as they was once, possibly there are some weaknesses being uncovered greater than before.
But we all know these vehicles are larger, heavier and produce extra downforce from beneath than at any time in current historical past. So, the monitor surfaces are being uncovered to extra violent forces than before.
And in the case of Bahrain, the vehicles are utilizing completely different components of the monitor too. We’re in the third yr of those guidelines, automobile compliance seems to be higher than ever, and downforce ranges are growing – so drivers can get away with utilizing extra run-off space and flat(ish) kerbs on entry as a result of the automobile isn’t as unsettled as it might have been beforehand.
Whatever the trigger, it wants shut consideration and correct options, like the drastic but additionally pragmatic ‘rip the drain out and fill it with concrete’ repair in Bahrain. – SMM