US intelligence suggests Sinwar believes Hamas has upper hand in negotiations with Israel, officials say

CNN
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American intelligence officials imagine that Yahya Sinwar, the highly effective chief of Hamas in Gaza who’s regarded as the group’s key decision-maker on any potential ceasefire deal, seemingly believes the group can survive Israel’s try to destroy it and feels assured it’s well-positioned to strategy negotiations from a spot of power, in accordance with US officials acquainted with latest assessments.

The purpose for Hamas is to outlive, these sources say — that might be victory for the group. Sinwar seemingly believes Hamas can maintain out whereas Israel’s world standing deteriorates because the war in Gaza, which has killed 1000’s of civilians, continues.

A senior Biden administration official put it bluntly: “He believes he’s successful.

For US negotiators pursuing a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel, it’s a discouraging evaluation. Secretary of State Antony Blinken informed the households of American hostages being held in Gaza in a gathering in Tel Aviv on Tuesday morning that the destiny of the newest proposal rests with Sinwar.

While the US is pressuring those that have sway over Hamas to push the group to simply accept the deal, Blinken on Tuesday made it clear that the US believes that Sinwar is the last word decision-maker.

“I think there are those who have influenced, but influence is one thing, actually getting a decision made is the is another thing. I don’t think anyone other than the Hamas leadership in Gaza are actually the ones who can make decisions,” Blinken mentioned, including: “That is what we are waiting on.”

If Sinwar believes the group can maintain out towards the Israeli invasion, it could imply he doesn’t but really feel enough stress to succeed in an settlement that might finish the combating — whilst Palestinian civilians proceed to perish.

The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that Sinwar referred to as their deaths “necessary sacrifices” in messages reviewed by the paper.

“We have the Israelis right where we want them,” Sinwar told Hamas’ political leadership in the Gulf state of Qatar not too long ago, in accordance with one of many messages. The date of the message isn’t clear however suggests that Sinwar is urgent for the battle to proceed.

US officials have sought publicly to painting Sinwar as callous to the deaths of Palestinian civilians and solely in preserving his personal private survival.

“It ought to come as a shock to nobody that Mr. Sinwar cares nothing in any respect in regards to the lives of harmless Palestinians which were caught up in this struggle, a struggle he began.
And it ought to shock and shock nobody {that a} beast like Mr. Sinwar would truly take glee in it and see benefit in it,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby informed reporters on Tuesday.

Sinwar, who was one of many key planners of the October 7 assault, has remained at massive in the huge warren of tunnels trenched beneath Gaza, shifting often and presumably surrounded by hostages as human shields, officials imagine.

The US intelligence neighborhood has struggled to trace him, in accordance with one supply acquainted with the intelligence.

But he has continued to drive Hamas’ negotiation positions, and it may well usually take days for messages to succeed in him, slowing the method.

Both Sinwar and Hamas’ high navy official, Mohammed Deif, are nonetheless alive. Even if Israel has killed 15,000 Hamas militants, as it claims, it signifies that as a lot as half of the group’s estimated combating pressure remains to be on the battlefield.

A longtime determine in the Islamist Palestinian group, Sinwar was accountable for build up Hamas’ navy wing earlier than forging essential new ties with regional Arab powers because the group’s civilian and political chief.

He was elected to Hamas’ principal decision-making physique, the Politburo, in 2017 because the political chief of Hamas in Gaza. However, he has since turn out to be the Politburo’s de facto chief, in accordance with analysis by the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Regional polling — whereas flawed — has indicated that Hamas had grown unpopular in Gaza earlier than the October 7 assault, and a few analysts have recommended that the group could have launched the operation in half to attempt to gin up some home assist.

Blinken mentioned Hamas’ reply to the proposal will reveal the group’s priorities.

“We await the answer from Hamas and that will speak volumes about what they want, what they’re looking for, who they’re looking after,” Blinken mentioned. “Are they looking after one guy who may be for now safe … while the people that he purports to represent continue to suffer in a crossfire of his own making? Or will he do what’s necessary to actually move this to a better place, to help end the suffering of people to help bring real security to Israelis and Palestinians alike?”