As he toured the Middle East this week, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken sounded optimistic on the prospect of Arab governments becoming a member of collectively to plan for Gaza’s future after the conflict, saying that he discovered them prepared “to do important things to help Gaza stabilize and revitalize,” as he put it on Monday, throughout a cease in Saudi Arabia.
But, at the least in public, Arab officers have been desirous to distance themselves from discussions about tips on how to rebuild and govern Gaza — significantly whereas Israeli bombs are nonetheless falling on greater than two million Palestinians who’re trapped in the besieged enclave.
Instead, they’ve careworn that Israel and the United States should implement a cease-fire, after which take steps towards a purpose Arab states have pursued for many years: a critical pathway towards making a Palestinian state.
“Without a stable, independent sovereign nation for the Palestinians, nothing else matters, because it will not come up with a long-term solution for the conflict that we’re seeing,” Prince Khalid bin Bandar, the Saudi ambassador to the United Kingdom, told the BBC on Tuesday.
And on Sunday, throughout a information convention with Mr. Blinken in Qatar, Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman stated, “Gaza is part of Palestinian occupied territory, which needs to be under Palestinian rule and leadership.” He added, “There is no peace in the region without a comprehensive and just settlement.”
Mr. Blinken, who since starting his newest diplomatic mission on Friday has visited Turkey, Greece, Jordan, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, in addition to Saudi Arabia and Israel, has additionally careworn the significance of a pathway towards a Palestinian state.
Officially, Arab governments have principally dismissed the notion that they might take part in postwar planning earlier than a cease-fire, arguing that this might be akin to serving to Israel clear up its mess. And they’re reluctant to be seen taking part in Israeli visions for Gaza’s future.
Mahmoud al-Habbash, an in depth adviser to the Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas, stated that current high-level conferences held by Mr. Abbas had been narrowly targeted on ending the conflict and addressing humanitarian considerations. He forcefully denied that they’d touched on Gaza’s future.
“All of these meetings, consultations, and efforts are aiming to cease the aggression,” he stated.
But behind the scenes, Arab officers have engaged in extra pragmatic discussions, in which they assert that the Palestinian Authority — which had lengthy pursued a Palestinian state whereas being sidelined by successive Israeli governments — is the pure candidate to control postwar Gaza. That stance has not modified regardless of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu all however ruling out any governing position for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza.
On Monday, when Mr. Abbas met with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, it was partly to coordinate positions on Gaza, a Palestinian official stated, talking on the situation of anonymity. The official famous that Mr. Abbas was urgent for a united Arab place that helps an answer to the broader Israeli-Palestinian battle, moderately than coping with Gaza in isolation.
And on Wednesday, Mr. Abbas plans to journey to Jordan to take part in a summit with Mr. Sisi and King Abdullah of Jordan to debate the state of affairs in Gaza, Jordan’s state information company reported.
Mr. Abbas additionally hopes {that a} five-member committee — together with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the Palestinians — will convene in the long run to additional coordinate diplomatic efforts, the Palestinian official stated.
“What’s taking place is consensus-building on the different pathways to the day after,” stated Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, a London-based analysis group, referring to how Gaza might be ruled when preventing ends.
Arab nations themselves have totally different views about what a future authorities in Gaza ought to appear to be, and the way succesful the Palestinian Authority is of taking up the enclave. Before the conflict, Gaza had been dominated for years by Hamas, the armed group that carried out the Oct. 7 assaults in Israel.
Palestinian analysts say that the Palestinian Authority’s skill to control Gaza would hinge on reaching unity with Hamas, which they predicted would stay a crucial a part of Palestinian politics following the conflict — although Israel has repeatedly stated it won’t cease preventing till Hamas is destroyed.
In 2005, when Israel withdrew all its troops and residents from Gaza, it handed over energy there to the Palestinian Authority. But Fatah, the political faction that controls the Palestinian Authority, misplaced a legislative election the subsequent yr to Hamas. In 2007, Hamas seized energy in Gaza in a brief and brutal civil conflict, dividing the Palestinians not solely territorially, however politically.
“Abbas and the Palestinian Authority want to bring Gaza back under their administration — they believe the war has created a major opportunity for them,” stated Jehad Harb, a Ramallah-based analyst. “But without reconciling with Hamas, they will struggle to govern there. Hamas is a powerful force that will remain in Gaza.”
For some Arab states, combined messaging on Gaza’s future “reflects their fluid thinking, and for others, the desperation of choices,” stated Bader Al-Saif, a professor at Kuwait University.
“There are no easy options there,” he stated.
Arab public opinion — deeply hostile towards Israel and the United States, particularly because the conflict started — is vital, Mr. Al-Saif added.
“Any day-after scenario that doesn’t meet the masses’ quest for dignity and justice for Palestinians will eventually bite the different states of the region,” he stated. “I’d keep that in mind if I were a policymaker.”
