Spain’s governing Socialist social gathering emerged on Sunday because the winner of regional elections in Catalonia that had been extensively seen as a litmus check for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s polarizing amnesty measure for separatists.
The Socialists are celebrating what they declare is a momentous victory, although they didn’t clinch sufficient seats to control on their very own. They almost certainly face weeks of bargaining, and presumably a repeat election if no settlement is reached. But for the primary time in over a decade, they can kind a regional authorities led by an anti-independence social gathering.
Addressing supporters late Sunday evening at Socialist headquarters in Barcelona, the social gathering’s Catalan chief, Salvador Illa, declared: “For the first time in 45 years, we have won the elections in Catalonia, in terms of both seats and votes. The Catalans have decided to open a new era.”
Still, Mr. Illa, who has promised enhancements in social providers, schooling and drought administration, will want 68 of the Catalan Parliament’s 135 seats to kind a authorities. On Sunday, his social gathering bought solely 42, that means he should search assist from the pro-independence social gathering Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (Catalan Republican Left) and the left-wing Comuns.
“Winning does not mean governing,” Toni Rodon, a professor of political science at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, mentioned earlier than the outcomes had been in. While Esquerra has supported Mr. Sánchez within the Spanish Parliament, he mentioned, negotiations in Catalonia should not anticipated to be simple.
The Socialists’ principal rival was the pro-independence Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia), led by Carles Puigdemont, who campaigned from exile in France. Junts got here an in depth second, however with 35 seats wouldn’t have the ability to kind a authorities with different pro-independence events, which carried out badly.
The chief of Esquerra, Pere Aragonès, who can be the departing president of the Catalan authorities, referred to as the snap election after failing to garner sufficient assist to move a regional finances. After successful solely 20 seats on Sunday, his social gathering now faces a reckoning.
On Sunday evening, Mr. Aragonés attributed Esquerra’s poor outcomes to the social gathering’s coverage of constructing agreements with the Socialists, which he mentioned, “have not been valued by the citizens.” From now on, he mentioned, “Esquerra will be in the opposition.”
It was a transparent indication that he’s not prepared to barter with Mr. Illa, and with out the assist of Esquerra, Catalonia may very well be “looking at a new election in October,” Professor Rodon mentioned.
According to Ignacio Lago, a professor of political science at Pompeu Fabra University, even when no settlement is reached and the elections must be repeated, “for the first time in years, the pro-independence parties do not hold the majority.”
The difficulty of an amnesty for separatists has been divisive for years.
When Mr. Sánchez first rose to energy in 2019, he mentioned he wouldn’t drop pending authorized motion towards Mr. Puigdemont or others accused of separatist exercise.
But Mr. Sánchez reversed himself after Spain’s normal election final July, when his solely probability for a second time period required acceding to the calls for of Mr. Puigdemont’s social gathering, which had turn out to be kingmaker in a single day by successful seven parliamentary seats. Mr. Sánchez, who is named a political survivor, brokered an amnesty take care of Junts, calling it one of the simplest ways ahead for peaceable coexistence in Catalonia.
The amnesty proposal was wildly unpopular in Spain. Two rival events organized an immense demonstration towards the deal final November in cities across the nation, and different protests not formally supported by the events surged for nights on finish outdoors the Socialist headquarters in Madrid.
At one level, a larger-than-life effigy of Mr. Sánchez with an extended Pinocchio-style nostril was crushed to smithereens by a mob.
The amnesty invoice has stalled within the decrease home of the Spanish Parliament after being accredited by its Senate in March. Legal challenges might additionally nonetheless delay the measure.
Isabel Díaz Ayuso, head of the Madrid regional authorities and a member of the center-right People’s Party, has referred to as the amnesty “the most corrupt law of our democracy.”
Historically, assist for Catalan independence was no better than 20 p.c, in keeping with a report publishedby the Elcano Royal Institute, a world affairs analysis group based mostly in Madrid. That modified in 2010, after the monetary disaster within the eurozone and austerity insurance policies compelled on Spain by the European Union inspired “populist messages of fiscal rebellion” in Catalonia, the report mentioned. The British authorities’s choice in 2012 to permit an independence referendum in Scotland bolstered separatists in Spain.
Tensions in Catalonia got here to a head in 2017, when the separatist authorities led by Mr. Puigdemont ignored Spanish courts and moved forward with an unlawful independence referendum. A declaration of independence adopted, as did a crackdown on the separatists by the Spanish authorities, which fired the Catalan authorities and imposed direct management. Nine political leaders had been jailed for crimes together with sedition, whereas Mr. Puigdemont fled to France, narrowly avoiding arrest.
Successive Spanish leaders, together with Mr. Sánchez in his first time period, have tried and didn’t have Mr. Puigdemont extradited.
In 2021, Mr. Sánchez’s administration took a extra conciliatory method to Mr. Puigdemont’s allies nonetheless in Spain, pardoning the 9 in jail.
The key query as we speak, in keeping with Cristina Monge, a professor of political science and sociology on the University of Zaragoza, is whether or not “the spirit” of the Catalan independence motion stays alive.
The constructive election outcomes for the Socialists in Catalonia on Sunday would counsel that the prime minister’s high-risk gamble to grant amnesty has paid off, decreasing separatist tensions within the area and serving to to normalize Spanish-Catalan relations.
“We have turned the page on the independence movement of 2017,” Professor Lago mentioned.
A examine carried out by the regional authorities’s Center of Opinion Studies exhibits {that a} rising share of Catalans — 51.1 p.c in February, in contrast with 44.1 p.c in March 2019 — assist remaining in Spain.
Independence is not “a top priority for many voters,” Professor Rodon mentioned, including that the shift might mirror a normal disenchantment with pro-independence events relatively than waning curiosity in separatism.
