Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the nationwide polls for the presidential election.
But that doesn’t assure the Democratic candidate victory. Hillary Clinton additionally had a clear lead over Trump in the polls for nearly the total 2016 marketing campaign. She ended up dropping in the electoral college.
Because the presidential voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which go to the state’s victor no matter the margin of victory, a handful swing states will in all probability determine the election and be focused closely by campaigners.
Each day, the Guardian’s ballot tracker takes a rolling 14-day common of the polls in eight swing states.
In order to trace how the race is growing in the areas that would determine the election, six of the eight states we centered on have been people who flipped to Trump in 2016 after backing Barack Obama in 2012. Arizona and North Carolina have been additionally added attributable to what they may inform us a few shifting electoral panorama – they may emerge as very important new swing states this yr.
We should warning that the polls – notably some swing state polls – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016. We are usually not sure, regardless of assurances, that they they’ve corrected this. Additionally, they could be over-counting Democratic help (extra folks could say they may vote for Biden than really end up).
We current the newest polls with these caveats to be borne in thoughts.
The nationwide polls
The newest polling common places Biden forward of Trump nationally.
While the nationwide ballot tracker is a poor indicator of how the essential swing states will sway the election, a powerful polling lead throughout the nation can level to how the race will develop.
Each day, the Guardian’s nationwide ballot tracker takes a 14-day common of nationwide voting intention polls.
On Tuesday 3 November 2020, Americans will vote for his or her subsequent president, with a selection between Donald Trump, the Republican incumbent, or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.
The Guardian ballot tracker tracks the newest polls in eight essential swing states. For Biden to win, he must reclaim a few of these swing states.
The Guardian is collating polls in every of those states, in addition to one other set of nationwide polls. Any polls deemed unreliable – for instance, as a result of they’ve small pattern sizes – are excluded.
Our polling common is a 14-day rolling common: on any day, we collate any polls printed in the final 14 days and take a imply common of their outcomes.
If any firm has performed a number of polls in the final 14 days, we common out their polling outcomes in order to provide them only one entry. After this standardization course of, we take a imply common of those every day entries to current the polling common.