A cavalier Tory leader and a botched pandemic response? It must be 1957 | Andy Beckett | Opinion
Harold Macmillan was British prime minister from 1957 to 1963. A charming Tory with a patchy document, he’s often remembered for saying that in his authorities Britons had “never had it so good” of their way of life. What has been forgotten, virtually fully, is that he mentioned this in the midst of a pandemic.
Macmillan made his declare on 20 July 1957, at a social gathering rally in Bedford. Like Boris Johnson, he was a new premier with a choice for optimistic public statements. In 1957, the British economic system was really fairly fragile, and Macmillan acknowledged this in his speech, however the concept Tory rule stored Britain affluent and secure was central to his premiership. As now, the social gathering had already been in energy for years, and wanted to current a Labour authorities as a horrible threat.
The pandemic, of a new pressure of flu, had began in China the earlier winter. During the primary half of 1957 it steadily moved throughout Asia and then the remainder of the world, killing a whole bunch of 1000’s of individuals, to the alarm of the world’s media, together with the British press. In June, the primary instances appeared in Britain. Yet that month, and once more in July, Macmillan’s well being secretary, Dennis Vosper, refused to make a public assertion setting out the risk the flu posed, arguing that it was not spreading within the UK.
By August, the virus was throughout north-west England. Macmillan lastly started to concentrate. He requested one other well being minister, John Vaughan-Morgan, for his division’s view of the scenario. Vaughan-Morgan replied: “The general assessment seems to be that eventually [the flu] will affect up to 20% of the population.” But he insisted that the virus was extra a public relations than a medical downside: “This is a heaven-sent topic for the press during the ‘silly season’.”
The authorities suggested these with signs to remain at house, however in any other case took little nationwide motion because the flu unfold proper throughout the nation during the autumn, as a substitute leaving it to native medical officers to work out what to do. In some areas, faculties had been closed, however few sporting occasions or different mass gatherings had been cancelled. In October, the height of the outbreak in Britain, the Conservative social gathering convention went forward as traditional. Macmillan’s speech didn’t point out the pandemic.
The outbreak continued into the winter, and finally could have killed greater than 30,000 Britons. Senior medical figures had been horrified at Britain’s efficiency. John Corbett McDonald of the general public well being laboratory service wrote to Ian Watson of the Royal College of General Practitioners: “Although we have had [over] 30 years to prepare for what should be done in the event of an influenza pandemic” – because the earlier one in 1918 – “we have all been rushing around trying to improvise [solutions]. We can only hope that … at the end it may be possible to construct an adequate explanation of what happened.”
Many critics of Johnson over coronavirus are hoping for a comparable reckoning. The authorities is anticipating one, too, judging by its goalpost-shifting rhetoric, such because the prime minister’s extremely selective boast this week that Britain had “defied so many predictions” concerning the influence of the virus.
But for Johnson’s critics, the destiny of Macmillan’s authorities within the aftermath of the 1957 pandemic shouldn’t be a reassuring precedent. During the later months of the disaster – not a level the federal government has reached but – the Tories’ ballot scores did fall sharply. But by the point the following basic election got here, in 1959, the pandemic had receded. The Labour manifesto didn’t even elevate the federal government’s dealing with of it. The Conservatives talked up their financial document as a substitute, and gained simply, rising their Commons majority to 100.
In Britain, it stays disconcertingly simple – and a signal of how lopsided our democracy is – for Tory governments accountable for disasters to vary the topic. The rightwing bias of the press, worse now than within the 1950s, as there are fewer left-leaning papers, is the plain villain. But equally essential is a reluctance from voters to resist the sheer scale of what the Conservatives have generally obtained unsuitable.
The 1957 flu disaster got here the 12 months after the disastrous British military intervention at Suez – additionally underneath the Conservatives, and supported by Macmillan – which destroyed a lot of Britain’s credibility as a world energy. Similarly, the British coronavirus failure intently follows the Tories’ chaotic Brexit U-turns and vastly counterproductive austerity. Yet in each eras, many citizens have averted coming to the unsettling conclusion that, very often, their default ruling class merely isn’t as much as the job. It’s extra comforting to consider, as Johnson promised this week, that after its newest calamity, “the UK will emerge stronger than ever before”.
Our nationwide fable typically revolves round restoration from catastrophe. In this narrative, failures by the state – such because the second world conflict setbacks that led to Dunkirk – simply create alternatives for future, larger successes. As a politician preoccupied by historical past, and not superb at governing, Johnson understands this nicely. His much-admired optimism is basically a type of cynicism: as he blunders by means of the current, he retains the potential of higher instances for Britain sooner or later floating perpetually within the distance, like a mirage.
Can the Tories’ cynical optimism and evasions of accountability ever be successfully identified? They can if Labour has a sharp sufficient leader. In 1957, Macmillan was mocked in parliament for his “never had it so good” speech by the shadow chancellor. With deft sarcasm, Harold Wilson known as the speech “remarkable”. Wilson turned Labour leader in 1963, as Macmillan’s supposed financial miracle lastly petered out, and gained 4 of the following 5 elections. Keir Starmer may do nicely to get some previous tapes of him out.
• Andy Beckett is a Guardian columnist
